[Translation Sample]South-east Asia bucks global stagflation trend 東南亞衝破全球經濟停滯現象

Source language:

War in Ukraine, record fuel and food prices and rising interest rates are stoking the threat of stagflation but at least one region is positioned to avoid the worst of the downturn: south-east Asia.

Across the globe, investors are selling stocks in anticipation of higher interest rates and potential recession. The US Federal Reserve last week raised rates by more than expected in a bid to tame prices while China’s punitive zero-Covid strategy has depressed demand in the world’s second-largest economy.

South-east Asia, however, looks set to largely escape the stagflationary cycle of high inflation and cratering output. In four of the six biggest economies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, gross domestic product is rising faster than inflation, a Financial Times analysis of government data has found.

In those countries — Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines — economies are bouncing back as strict pandemic entry controls are removed and a resurgence of tourism fills hotels in hotspots ranging from Vietnam’s Ha Long Bay to Bali.

“What you are seeing in south-east Asia at the moment is a reopening bounce coming through: the growth environment is very strong, and that is likely to carry over into the second half of the year,” said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. “Asean is looking very resilient.”

Target Language:

烏克蘭戰爭、創歷史紀錄的油價和食品加價以及持續上升的利息進一步加劇停滯性通貨膨脹帶來的威脅，但世界上卻有一個地方卻已做好準備，避免經濟低迷的惡果，那個地方就是東南亞地區。

有見利率繼續上升，加上未來可能出現經濟衰退，全球投資者正拋售股票。美國聯儲局上週為控制價格持續上升，調高利率至預期範圍外。同時，中國的懲罰性清零措施亦抑制了這個全球第二大經濟體的市場需求。

然而，東南亞地區卻似乎能擺脫高通脹和低產量的停滯性通貨膨脹週期。金融時報一項對政府數據的調查得出，東南亞國家協會（ASEAN）中六個最大經濟體中的四個的國民生產總值升幅超高通脹水平。

這些國家包括越南、馬來西亞、印度尼西亞和菲律賓，其經濟在非常嚴格的疫情入境措施後大幅反彈上升，遊客塞滿當地熱門旅遊景點的酒店，例如越南的下龍灣和印尼的峇里島。

HSBC的亞洲首席經濟學家Frederic Neumann表示，「東南亞目前的現象是重開邊境而帶來的經濟反彈，並有很大的增長空間，更可能持續至今年下半年，可見ASEAN的經濟韌性非常好。」