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Translation Sample - IMF 2023 Report 翻譯示例(IMF報告翻譯練習)

  • odettetranslation
  • Oct 23, 2023
  • 3 min read

Updated: Oct 24, 2023

Note: This is not an official translation provided by IMF. I translated a part of it in my free time.


ST (click here for the link to ST) :


After a stronger-than-expected recovery from the pandemic and continued resilience in early 2023, economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is softening as the effect of tighter policies to combat inflation is taking hold and the external environment is weakening. The early and swift monetary tightening across the region since 2021, together with the withdrawal of most of the pandemic fiscal stimulus and the reversal of external price pressures, have helped put headline inflation on a downward trajectory. Core inflation has also started to ease, as price pressures are becoming less generalized, although it remains elevated amid strong labor markets and positive output gaps in some countries. Banking systems have weathered the rise in interest rates well and are generally healthy, though credit to the private sector is decelerating amid tighter supply conditions and weaker demand.


Economic growth is projected to decline further in late 2023 and bottom out in 2024, while inflation is projected to converge gradually toward central banks’ targets. Over the medium term, LAC’s growth is projected to return to its low historical average. Downside risks to the near-term outlook have receded somewhat, but the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside. Key external downside risks include lower growth in main trading partners, commodity price volatility, new inflationary shocks, renewed turbulence in financial markets of large economies, and the intensification of geopolitical tensions. At the regional level, downside risks include a reemergence of inflationary pressures, increased social tensions and violence, and climate-related shocks. Upside risks comprise a more benign global environment, a faster-than-anticipated decline in inflation, less scarring from recent shocks than previously envisaged, and growth in green minerals and energy sectors.


TT:

拉丁美洲及加勒比海地區(下稱「LAC地區」)經濟正從疫情中復甦,較預期情況理想,並繼續在2023年初表現出韌性。然而,為打擊通脹而推行的緊縮政策漸見成效,加上逐漸微弱的外部環境,讓LAC地區的經濟增長放緩。LAC地區自2021年已迅速採取貨幣緊縮政策,並撤銷大部分因應疫情而推行的財政刺激措施,加上外圍價格壓力逆轉,拉低基本通脹率。隨著價格壓力進一步減退,核心通貨膨脹率稍微下降,但由於勞動市場強勁,加上部分國家產出缺口正值,導致核心通貨膨脹率仍然高企。在貨貸供給趨緊和需求減弱的雙重壓力下,私營部門的信貸增長放緩,但鑑於銀行系統擁有良好抵禦能力,有效應對持續攀升的利率,總括而言仍算健康。


市場預期,2023年下半年後,經濟增長將進一步下滑,並在2024年達到谷底。與此同時,通脹率預計將逐漸趨近中央銀行的通脹目標。中期展望顯示,LAC地區的經濟增長有望回歸至歷史平均水平的低位。儘管近期經濟前景的下行風險有所減弱,但仍存在外部下行風險因素,包括主要貿易夥伴的經濟增長下滑、商品價格波動、新一輪通脹壓力、大型經濟體金融市場的不穩定以及地緣政治緊張局勢升級等。就LAC地區而言,所面臨的下行風險包括通脹壓力再次升高、社會動盪和暴力事件增多,以及氣候相關衝擊。上行風險包括全球經濟增長保持溫和、通脹下降速度高於預期、近期的衝擊造成的損失較小,以及綠色礦業和能源行業的增長。




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